Here is a rather bizarrely alarmist analysis, from a think-tank in the Netherlands (GEFIRA). It was referenced by a pundit for whom I have (literally) the greatest respect — so I wanted to give it proper due diligence.
GEFIRA is an acronym for however the Dutch say Global Analysis from the European Perspective. It’s basically six European guys studiously ignoring the fact that Europeans have been flooding the rest of the world for the last 500 years. Just how likely is it that ethnic Europeans are in danger of becoming a real minority on Planet Earth, that is the question.
At first glance, the presentation reports some fairly startling trends in western Europe.
Indigenous Europeans, apparently, are not breeding (this is also reputedly true of North America’s Europeans).
For whatever reason, indigenous western Europe is also simultaneously taking in huge waves of refugees from NATO war zones, which means that western Europe is being flooded with populations from Africa and West Asia – many of whom are Muslim.
Back in the middle of the 7th century, the success of the Islamic Conquest was, in no small part, because the populations of North Africa and West Asia were tired of hosting wars between Rome and Persia. This may be why they were so resentful of being told their version of Christianity was heretical and so happy to hear from someone else, for a change.
Let’s look at the data, such as it is. For starters, I added up all the English/French-speaking Europeans in North America, New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. These are 2016 estimates from the United States Central Intelligence Agency. Note that the US Census, for one, includes west Asians and some north Africans in their definition of “White”, as do the British – so that data is obscured, but minimally so.
New Zealand, interestingly, does not.
Weirder still, if you’re African American in Canada, the box you check off, when you’re filling out your census form, is “Other”. If you’re French, German, Scottish, Italian or Chinese, on the other hand – you get your own little box.
How insulting is that?
Australia has a very similar approach. If there are any people with African ancestry in Australia, they are also invited to check the “Other” box. If you’re Irish, Scottish, Italian, German, Chinese, Indian, Greek or Dutch (in that order), you get your own little box.
That’s enough worrying about that for now. Let’s just looking for a ballpark here.
The most commonly accepted boundaries place Asia to the east of the Urals and south of the Caucasus. But, ethnically speaking, there is a very big difference between West Asians, South Asians and East Asians, to say the least. So I took the total number of peoples counted simply as “Asians” and divided it by three.
The first thing that’ll hit you, even with the new approach, is that Asians are still leading the global population explosion. To figure out if that qualifies as weird, we’d have to factor for the square kilometers.
Am I going to do this today?
No. I am not.
But, just by glancing at my Peters World Map, I’m willing to bet that would level things off a bit. Maybe even totally.
The second thing that will hit you, if it didn’t hit you right off, is that it is in no way appropriate to get hysterical about Africa’s share of said same population explosion.
In 1970, our Dutch Consulting Company blithely points out, Europe’s population was twice that of Africa’s. Clearly, that’s supposed to be alarming relative to today’s numbers. But Africa is three times the size of Western Europe. So let’s think a bit about what that might actually mean – for Europe to have twice the population of a continent three times its size.
Congo secured its independence from Belgium in 1960 and Kenya secured its independence from the British in 1963. A similar story was unfolding all over Africa in that time frame.
Kenya’s 700% population growth is more likely to be due to their improved census methodologies and Congo is still struggling under the weight of a genocidal “civil” war that has unfortunately been characterized by runaway rape culture. Ethiopia has been dealing with similar administrative failures. To extrapolate the aforementioned catastrophic circumstances out 30 years is completely kaput.
There is no reasonable reason to assume that war, famine and poverty will “continue to rise” in Africa. We’re working on it. We’re making progress.
Bank on it.
Nor does it make sense to assume that West Asia and Central Africa will continue to be plagued by Forces Currently Behaving Very Badly in the area. Even without the war zones, Africa and West Asia are places that many people are proud to call Home, and intelligent investment strategies already underway in the area are sure to invite a lot of people back out of Europe, within the next 30 years certainly, but even within the next decade.
If you haven’t already watched the video, consider watching it without the soundtrack.
I got the total number of indigenous Americans in the Americas by subtracting everybody else from worldometer‘s 7.5 billion 2017 global population. If you do a more in depth analysis and get significantly different results, please let me know.
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Tom Jutte